YTD - October 2025

October review

Everyone was worried that the next big crash was coming soon, myself included. A couple of weeks in, I went from 130% long to just 70% long in the span of about 15 minutes. I've since reshuffled my holdings a bit, and am back to almost 100% long.

Over the month, I've tightened up my process, with more defined rules for locking in profits at extension, and re-entry at pullbacks. This is to help rotate capital faster and also to keep my portfolio positioned in the names I feel are most likely to make moves. I have a bad habit of sometimes randomly holding onto names I like a bit more due to the company having strong fundamentals, despite having no near term reason to move higher. Bit the bullet and closed off most of these positions to free up capital.

Trades closed in October with >1% impact on Portfolio, in no particular order:

• Profits
  • SMR (ASX)
  • CNC
  • DQ
  • SBSW
  • SSL
  • UNH
  • SLV calls
  • IE calls
• Losses
  • WHC (ASX)
  • YAL (ASX)
  • BAK

Looking ahead

Being bearish too early is costly, and sitting on cash rarely leads to outperformance. My plan is to:

1. Stay in the market with exposure to themes are still working, and which I feel will be more resilient in the event of a sudden crash. In the event there are no themes which are working, I should be mostly in cash.
2. Watch the market closely for signs of a crash, and be ready to reduce exposure.

Main themes I'm in:

• Chinese names - not much movement post Trump-Xi meet, which probably means this TACO trade outcome was already fully expected. Charts are still intact, but I'm watching closely for near term news flow to send prices in either direction.
• Precious metals - watching the consolidation closely. Expecting more upside in the medium to long run. Feels like there's a chance of an explosive upwards move at any given moment due to debasement and central bank buying, but most are calling for near term consolidation. Maybe I'm too bullish - a sign that I should be more conservative when taking positions, and look for entries at the bottom of ranges, ideally after shakeout bars.
• Refiners/Chemicals - I know basically nothing about chemicals, except that it is over supplied due to Chinese over-capacity, and weak consumer demand. Interested because all news and articles are bearish, and charts look terrible. Smart people I follow are starting to pay attention. Watching for a change in sentiment to put in a bottom. China anti-involution policy could be the start, but I'm mindful that it could just as easily go lower. Will use tight stops, and trade around any small spikes to build up buffer.
• Mining metals - cheap valuations, good charts, critical minerals for US, debasement.
• Oil price - Charts are terrible, sentiment is poor. Maybe time for a bounce, maybe not, but am slowly testing out names which may have potential to move a lot if there is a spike in the oil price.

Themes I'm not in, but am interested or watching:

• US energy infrastructure / security
• Agriculture - soybeans, wheat, corn
• Growth names - in light of Powell's comments about QT ending on December 1 2025

Things to work on in the near future:

• Put together a spreadsheet to help me quantify my total portfolio risk
• Thinking more about exit rules
• Start looking into more growth and hot themes. I am aware of my current bias towards value stocks, and am looking to take a more pragmatic approach to stock selection to capture more opportunities. While my desire to have fundamentals underpin my portfolio downside have pushed me towards value, I am also conscious that the only measure of success in speculation is achieving returns and not giving it back to the market.
• A more systematic way to find and monitor tradeable themes and names

Portfolio positions heading into November: